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When Vladimir Putin addressed Russia's parliament on Wednesday, the reception he received was assured to be friendly. Last month's legislative elections, which one Russian publication wryly labeled the "Special Election Operation," have produced a State Duma even more compliant and pro-Kremlin than any that came before it. The governing United Russia party now commands a larger bloc of lawmakers than at any previous point, a result that allows the Kremlin to present the vote as a sweeping endorsement from the Russian public.
The central question now is what Putin intends to do with that mandate. Is there any indication he is ready to wind down what he continues to call a "special military operation"? Or should observers prepare for a further intensification of the war in Ukraine and of Moscow's confrontation with Europe? Thursday may offer clues, when the Russian president is expected to speak at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow, an annual foreign policy gathering where his remarks have traditionally revealed his thinking about the world.
At present, every available signal suggests Putin intends to press on with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, disregarding the substantial battlefield casualties his forces have suffered and the mounting strain on Russia's economy. His public statements and speeches convey a continuing conviction that Russia can achieve a military victory.
According to Russian media reporting, Moscow is taking encouragement from Ukraine's shortage of air-defence missiles and from the expectation that Russian strikes through the winter will intensify pressure on the Ukrainian population. Kyiv has openly described the difficulty of intercepting Russia's ballistic missiles and its new jet-powered drones, which have been launched against Ukrainian targets on a daily basis.
Beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin has been equally explicit about its desire for European governments to cut their military and financial assistance to Kyiv. Moscow argues that such support merely prolongs the fighting, or, put another way, stands in the way of a Russian victory.
Western officials believe Russia has been transmitting not-so-subtle messages to that end. They accuse Moscow of conducting an escalating hybrid campaign against European states, citing cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage and Russian drones intruding into European airspace. In Germany, a drone fitted with an explosive device was discovered near Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig airport. Such activity is often described as taking place in the "grey zone," the ambiguous territory between peace and open war.
This week, the BBC asked Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, whether he acknowledged that his country was waging a hybrid war against European nations. Lavrov deflected the question, asking instead whether it referred to Russia destroying drones and missiles supplied to Ukraine by Britain and continental Europe that are used to attack Russia. He said that if the West admits its weapons are being used to strike Russia and Russia destroys them, observers may call it whatever they like. He added that he had no doubt this was a war Europe was waging against Russia, a position he said Moscow had maintained for a long time.
That framing has in fact been the official Russian line for some time: the events in Ukraine amount to a European war on Russia. This narrative conveniently omits the fact that it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and that Russia continues to wage war there.
A key question is how far Russia would go to sever European support for Kyiv. Is Moscow, for instance, actively preparing to start a military conflict in Europe with a NATO member state? That appears improbable. After more than four and a half years of war, Russia's army has still not managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, which lies directly adjacent to Russia.
Fighting Europe may not be the plan, but frightening it into reducing support for Kyiv could well be the objective. The messaging coming out of Moscow is worth listening to carefully. Sergei Karaganov, a prominent foreign policy strategist and honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, issued a stark warning. He said that if the West continues what he characterized as a European war with American help against Russia on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later Russia will feel the need to escalate.
Karaganov told the BBC that in his scenarios the first series of blows would be conventional. But if Europe did not surrender, he said, Russia would unfortunately have to go nuclear, and that little would be left of some European countries. When it was put to him that a nuclear strike would provoke a response from Europe and that nothing would remain of Russia, Karaganov rejected the premise. He said there would be no response from Europe, asking whether Britain would attack Russia with nuclear weapons, and adding that he hoped such thinking was not that reckless. He expressed confidence that the Americans were not that reckless either.
The exchange illustrates how openly senior Russian figures now discuss the possibility of nuclear escalation. Such rhetoric serves multiple purposes: it signals resolve to domestic audiences, tests Western cohesion, and aims to make European governments think twice about the cost of continued backing for Ukraine. Whether or not Moscow genuinely intends to follow through, the ambiguity itself functions as a tool of pressure.
For European capitals, the coming months present a difficult calculation. Winter strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure could deepen humanitarian suffering and strain Kyiv's air defences further. At the same time, acts of sabotage and airspace violations inside Europe raise the prospect that the conflict could spill beyond Ukraine's borders in less conventional ways. The Valdai speech will be scrutinized for any hint of Putin's intentions, but based on the evidence so far, there is little to suggest the Russian leader is preparing to change course.
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