hendra-wijaya
The sovereigntist Parti Québécois has been projected by Canadian media to win Monday's provincial election in Quebec, a minority result that will install Paul St-Pierre Plamondon as the province's incoming premier and inject fresh uncertainty into Canadian politics.
The result ends more than a decade in the political wilderness for the PQ, which last held power in 2014. It also hands Prime Minister Mark Carney a new and unpredictable partner — and potential adversary — in Quebec City, at a moment when his federal Liberal government is already contending with economic pressure from Washington.
The victory sets up the prospect of confrontations between Quebec and Ottawa on a range of files, including immigration and the future of the monarchy in Canada. More significantly, it revives the question of Quebec independence, an issue that has shaped — and twice nearly broken — the country's constitutional order.
The Parti Québécois has pledged to hold a referendum on Quebec's independence, a promise that echoes a similar vote scheduled in the province of Alberta later this month. If both proceed, Carney could find himself managing dual unity crises in different regions of the country simultaneously, an unprecedented challenge for a modern Canadian prime minister.
Quebec, the country's majority French-speaking province, has held two previous referendums on sovereignty, in 1980 and 1995. The second was defeated by a razor-thin margin. Current polling, however, suggests the appetite for separation has cooled considerably, with only about 30 percent of Quebecers backing the idea.
Plamondon has indicated that any referendum would occur only after US President Donald Trump leaves office. Trump is due to depart in roughly two years, meaning that if the premier keeps his pledge, a third plebiscite on independence would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030 — a timeline that gives his government room to build its case while avoiding the distraction of an unpredictable American administration.
Beyond the sovereignty question, Plamondon has signalled a combative posture toward Ottawa on any file he regards as encroaching on provincial jurisdiction. During the campaign, he said he would pressure the federal government on immigration and vowed to resist any increases in provincial immigration targets mandated by Carney's government.
He has also committed to what he describes as abolishing the monarchy in Quebec, pledging to redirect money spent on its institutions toward social services. Speaking to reporters in late September, he said his government would "do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec," repatriate those funds, and channel them into social causes.
As a concrete first step, Plamondon suggested defunding the office of Quebec's lieutenant-governor, the representative of King Charles III in the province, and using the savings to address homelessness. The proposal is likely to encounter significant legal resistance, given the monarchy's entrenched role in Canada's constitution.
The lieutenant-governor's responsibilities include granting royal assent to new legislation — a function that would put the legality of future Quebec laws in doubt if the office were stripped of funding. Pressed on these obstacles, Plamondon has said he is prepared for a legal fight with the federal government, a stance that suggests his premiership will be marked by jurisdictional battles rather than accommodation.
Plamondon's record lends credibility to that position. In 2022, he was among the Quebec lawmakers who refused to swear allegiance to the King, a protest that ultimately paved the way for a provincial law making the oath optional. His election therefore represents the arrival in power of a politician who has already tested the limits of the crown's role in provincial life.
The PQ's success on Monday can be attributed in part to public fatigue with the previous government, the Coalition Avenir Québec. CAQ spent eight years in office with the protection of Quebec's identity and language at the centre of its agenda, but longtime leader François Legault eventually lost significant support among voters.
Efforts to revive the party by replacing Legault with a new leader, outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette, failed to turn the tide. Fréchette conceded her own re-election race in Trois-Rivières shortly before 22:00 local time, and said in a speech that she would work with St-Pierre Plamondon on the transition.
"Governing Quebec is the greatest honour I have ever had," she said. "I have Quebec tattooed on my heart." The Quebec Liberal Party secured the second-most seats in the legislature, while the Quebec Conservative Party gained seats — a result that leaves the PQ governing without a majority and dependent on opposition support to pass legislation.
Carney, who leads the federal Liberal party, remains popular in Quebec, though support for him had recently dipped after Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada in August following a breakdown in trade talks. Quebec is among the provinces hardest hit by those tariffs, with experts at the global forecasting firm Oxford Economics projecting a C$2bn blow to the provincial economy.
Carney congratulated Plamondon on his victory late on Monday and vowed to work with the new government. "Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," he said in a social media post, adding that he looked forward to working with Plamondon to support businesses and workers affected by tariffs, create jobs, address homelessness, and build more homes across the province.
The congratulations, however cordial, mask the difficult dynamics ahead. A minority PQ government with a referendum pledge, a premier openly hostile to the monarchy, and a federal government facing trade disruption and a possible Alberta separation vote together create one of the most delicate periods in recent Canadian federal-provincial relations.
Comments (0)