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Rebel authorities in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region announced on Sunday that their forces have temporarily vacated Mekelle, the regional capital, citing fears for civilian safety as fighting between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the national army edged closer to the city.
The withdrawal represents one of the most significant battlefield developments since hostilities resumed, effectively handing the federal government and its allied fighters control of Tigray's administrative centre. Two Mekelle residents, speaking to the BBC, confirmed that pro-government troops were now present in the city and that TPLF units had departed. One of the residents added that mobile telephone services appeared to be returning in several parts of the capital, a sign that communications infrastructure was beginning to function again after weeks of disruption.
The TPLF, which has governed Tigray for years and dominated Ethiopian national politics for nearly three decades before losing power in 2018, framed the pullback as a temporary measure rather than a surrender. In its statement, the group said the decision to relocate was driven by concern for the safety of civilians who could be caught in urban combat. Whether the rebels intend to regroup and counter-attack, or whether the move signals a deeper strategic retreat, remains unclear.
Fighting has flared across parts of Tigray, Afar and Amhara in recent weeks, pitting the TPLF against federal forces and allied militias. The renewed clashes have shattered a fragile calm that had held, unevenly, since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, the African Union-brokered deal that formally ended a two-year civil war. That conflict, widely regarded as one of the deadliest of this century, is estimated by the AU's own mediator to have killed around 600,000 people and pushed the region to the brink of famine.
For residents of Tigray, the latest escalation has revived painful memories of a war that devastated hospitals, schools and markets. Many families had only recently begun rebuilding their lives, and the return of front-line fighting to Mekelle's outskirts has triggered fresh displacement. Aid agencies have warned that the deteriorating security situation across northern Ethiopia is severely hampering humanitarian operations, with the United Nations calling on all parties to guarantee safe and unimpeded access to civilians in need.
The capture of Mekelle by pro-government forces carries symbolic as well as military weight. The city was the scene of dramatic events during the previous war, changing hands more than once and becoming a focal point of international attention. Losing the regional capital deprives the TPLF of a key base of operations and could complicate its ability to coordinate its forces and administer territory. At the same time, urban warfare in a densely populated city risks civilian casualties, which may explain the rebels' stated rationale for withdrawing.
The conflict has increasingly drawn in outside actors, raising fears that it could destabilise the wider Horn of Africa. On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing a newly formed rebel coalition. Eritrea denied the allegation. Ethiopia has likewise accused Egypt of supporting the insurgents, prompting the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat; Cairo responded in kind by ordering an Ethiopian embassy official to leave.
Those tensions have turned a domestic insurgency into a regional flashpoint. The United States Department of State urged all sides to exercise restraint and pursue dialogue ahead of a diplomatic meeting on the conflict held in Egypt on Sunday, attended by leaders from several of Ethiopia's neighbours. Washington's appeal reflects growing international anxiety that the fighting could widen, potentially pulling in countries with competing interests in the Red Sea corridor and the Nile basin.
The political backdrop to the fighting is equally fraught. Last month, the TPLF joined six other armed movements, including the Fano militia from Amhara, to form an alliance whose declared aim is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power. That coalition has united disparate groups with differing grievances, but it has also hardened the federal government's determination to confront its opponents militarily rather than negotiate.
Observers caution that the rebel alliance's formation and the rapid diplomatic fallout with Eritrea and Egypt suggest the conflict is entering a more dangerous phase. A wider war could disrupt trade routes, intensify refugee flows and strain already overstretched humanitarian budgets. Neighbouring states, some of which are themselves fragile, may find it difficult to remain on the sidelines if the fighting continues to spread.
For now, attention focuses on Mekelle and what comes next. If federal forces consolidate control, the government may present the withdrawal as a decisive victory. If the TPLF regroups and launches counter-attacks, the city could again become contested ground. Either way, the events of the past week have undone much of the stability that the Pretoria Agreement was meant to secure, leaving civilians in Tigray facing another uncertain chapter in a conflict that many hoped had ended.
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