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Spain’s primary intelligence service alerted authorities to the likelihood of coordinated mass border crossings into the North African enclave of Ceuta just hours before tens of thousands of migrants arrived in late July, according to recently declassified government files.
The release of the 40-document collection comes at a time of heightened political tension, marked by near-daily street demonstrations across Ceuta. Protesters have voiced frustration over the central government's handling of the influx while raising sharp questions regarding the role played by neighboring Moroccan authorities during the event.
The newly unsealed intelligence records show that on July 29, the National Intelligence Center (CNI) dispatched an urgent alert via WhatsApp directly to the central government's administrative delegation based in Ceuta. The transmission warned of widespread online calls inciting individuals to stage a dual push against the border perimeter by land and sea the next evening.
Intelligence analysts highlighted the vast reach of the digital organizing efforts. The declassified messaging specifically noted the presence of two separate social media channels that had amassed an estimated 180,000 followers, which the agency cited to convey the sheer magnitude of the mobilization underway.
Spanish intelligence officials also sought to coordinate with international counterparts. On that same day, the CNI notified Morocco's domestic and foreign intelligence services, the DGST and DGED, cautioning that large groups intended to scale border fencing or swim around coastal barriers, potentially exploiting reduced vigilance during Morocco’s annual Throne Day festivities on July 30.
Despite these warnings, a massive influx unfolded between July 30 and July 31, with more than 72,000 migrants and asylum seekers pouring across the border from Moroccan territory into the Spanish enclave in an unprecedented humanitarian rush.
In the wake of the document release, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez pushed back against claims that his administration ignored clear foresight of the catastrophe. Sanchez maintained that the intelligence available prior to the incident did not provide actionable indications of an event of such vast proportions.
Sanchez stated publicly on social media platform X that while various institutions were actively monitoring the existence of the online campaign, the data collected in advance did not forecast the extraordinary scale, specific nature, or likelihood of the events that subsequently transpired.
The documents have also rekindled debate concerning the posture of Moroccan border enforcement. While a leaked police report from July had alleged a stance of total permissiveness on the part of Moroccan security forces, Sanchez had previously asserted that there was no concrete evidence showing direct state involvement from Rabat.
An internal CNI document drafted at midday on July 30 offered a nuanced view of Rabat's actions. The intelligence assessment concluded that while Moroccan authorities were likely not actively inciting the migratory wave, they had demonstrated significant negligence and passivity throughout the unfolding crisis.
The assessment further observed that Moroccan officials mounted virtually no proactive operational response once control along the perimeter deteriorated, with law enforcement measures largely limited to the mobilization of a minimal number of riot control units.
The intelligence records detailed how chaotic conditions had already taken hold on the night of July 29, as crowds assembled along the coastline preparing to plunge into the Mediterranean. The report noted that an expanded presence of Moroccan police and gendarmes proved entirely inadequate to contain the crowd, allowing several hundred individuals to swim across under the cover of darkness.
More than a month after the late-July surge, the humanitarian impact remains visible across the small enclave. The Spanish government estimates that roughly 5,000 migrants and asylum seekers, among them around 1,200 unaccompanied minors, continue to reside in Ceuta, though local municipal authorities place the remaining figure higher, at up to 10,000 individuals.
To manage the fallout and support emergency accommodation in a territory with a baseline population of approximately 84,000 residents, the Spanish government in Madrid has allocated $357 million in aid funding to address ongoing shelter deficits and relieve municipal infrastructure.
The revelation of the CNI documents has fueled intense criticism from Spain’s political opposition, who argue the executive branch failed to take preventative measures despite receiving explicit warnings. Ester Munoz, parliamentary spokeswoman for the conservative Popular Party, condemned the administration, asserting that officials possessed advance knowledge of the plans and should be held directly accountable for the border crisis.
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